02

Political and economic environment

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21 min read

Key Takeaways

Summary

Climate change indirectly influences civil unrest, terrorism, and armed conflicts, posing threats to international security. Its impacts include disruptions in supply chains, increased demand for climate peril and political risk insurance, and exacerbated food and water shortages.

By 2030, fresh water demand is projected to exceed supply by 40%, and by 2050, climate change could force 216 million people to migrate within their own countries. Businesses must integrate climate risk assessments into their continuity planning to mitigate these threats effectively.

Facts and figures

  • Food Insecurity and Water Crisis

    250 mio people in 58 countries faced acute food insecurity, by 2030, fresh water demand is projected to exceed supply by 40% due to climate change.

  • Migration Due to Climate Change

    By 2050, climate change could force 216 million people in six regions to migrate within their own countries, highlighting the social impact of environmental shifts.

  • Impact on Insurance Demand

    Climate change is expected to increase demand for insurance covering climate-related perils (drought, flood, cyclones), political risk, and strike, riot, and civil commotion, although actual increases in civil unrest could challenge the insurability of such risks.

Underfunding of public health – harmful to morbidity, mortality and GDP

A robust healthcare system requires countries to spend around 7% to 7.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). However, 132 countries spend less than his threshold.4 Over time, consistent underinvestment could lead to higher morbidity and mortality rates, potentially exacerbating future pandemics and also resulting in lower global GDP.

Chapter Summary

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View Summary

  • Domestic and international conflict can dampen economic growth and overall demand for insurance.
  • For business generally, operational challenges posed by climate change include potential supply chain disruptions.
  • There will likely be more demand for strike, riots and civil commotion insurance also, although an actual rise in civil unrest could challenge the insurability of such risks.
  • In the case of military conflict, insurers’ liability and asset portfolios could come under stress, ultimately increasing the cost of capital.

Preparing for a growing number of floods and droughts is clearly a first priority. Planting the right crops and managing them with new digital tools for precision farming are further essential measures for farmers to implement.

To establish climate-resilient operations, farmers in Central America and the Caribbean need access to new tools, seeds and other input materials. And this requires support from governments, multilateral donor organisations, NGOs and the private sector.

Governments will not be able to shoulder the financial burden of adopting new resilient practices without additional support, however. Investors must be attracted, and this is where the insurance industry can play a key role. Insurers pay out in the event of a lost harvest, for example, and thus assure lenders that their clients will remain solvent even if disaster strikes. This makes it easier for investors to finance the sector.

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Preparing for a growing number of floods and droughts is clearly a first priority. Planting the right crops and managing them with new digital tools for precision farming are further essential measures for farmers to implement.

To establish climate-resilient operations, farmers in Central America and the Caribbean need access to new tools, seeds and other input materials. And this requires support from governments, multilateral donor organisations, NGOs and the private sector.

Governments will not be able to shoulder the financial burden of adopting new resilient practices without additional support, however. Investors must be attracted, and this is where the insurance industry can play a key role. Insurers pay out in the event of a lost harvest, for example, and thus assure lenders that their clients will remain solvent even if disaster strikes. This makes it easier for investors to finance the sector.

A resilient farming sector will help to diversify economies and make them more resilient against external shocks. It will also provide employment for many. This is especially important in countries with growing populations.

Insurers, governments, NGOs, international organisations and other players in the sector have the risk management expertise to educate farmers on how to manage their operations in the future. We can all grow in this together – agriculture, insurance, finance and suppliers – making society as a whole more resilient not only with regard to food security but also in economic terms.

Call us to discuss how we can collaborate to make the key economic pillar of farming in the Caribbean and Central America resilient for generations to come.

El Niño brought no rain …

… to Honduras, Guatemala or El Salvador in 2014, nor was there any rain until March 2016.1 It was the worst drought in decades, stretching out over two consecutive years and leaving parched fields and empty reservoirs. Day labourers, subsistence farmers and the poorer population in general were hit particularly hard as food prices soared. Almost one in ten people were dependent on aid.

The drought was hardly over in 2016 when Hurricane Otto travelled straight across Central America from the Atlantic to the Pacific.2 This was remarkable as no hurricane had managed to cross Central America from one ocean to the next since Hurricane Cesar-Douglas3 in 1996. Hurricane Otto left a trail of destruction as it made its way along the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, claiming many lives, triggering mudslides and floods and causing havoc to the infrastructure in both countries. In Panama, the hurricane brought devastation to the agricultural and livestock industry.

10 million Estimated global economic losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2023

Data as of August 2024

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With fertile soils and a conducive climate, Central America and the Caribbean are uniquely positioned to supply farm products to growing markets worldwide.

Preparing for a growing number of floods and droughts is clearly a first priority. Planting the right crops and managing them with new digital tools for precision farming are further essential measures for farmers to implement.

To establish climate-resilient operations, farmers in Central America and the Caribbean need access to new tools, seeds and other input materials. And this requires support from governments, multilateral donor organisations, NGOs and the private sector.

Governments will not be able to shoulder the financial burden of adopting new resilient practices without additional support, however. Investors must be attracted, and this is where the insurance industry can play a key role. Insurers pay out in the event of a lost harvest, for example, and thus assure lenders that their clients will remain solvent even if disaster strikes. This makes it easier for investors to finance the sector.

A resilient farming sector will help to diversify economies and make them more resilient against external shocks. It will also provide employment for many. This is especially important in countries with growing populations.

Insurers, governments, NGOs, international organisations and other players in the sector have the risk management expertise to educate farmers on how to manage their operations in the future. We can all grow in this together – agriculture, insurance, finance and suppliers – making society as a whole more resilient not only with regard to food security but also in economic terms.

Call us to discuss how we can collaborate to make the key economic pillar of farming in the Caribbean and Central America resilient for generations to come.

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Source: Swiss Re CatNet®, ESRI & GFK

Preparing for a growing number of floods and droughts is clearly a first priority. Planting the right crops and managing them with new digital tools for precision farming are further essential measures for farmers to implement.

To establish climate-resilient operations, farmers in Central America and the Caribbean need access to new tools, seeds and other input materials. And this requires support from governments, multilateral donor organisations, NGOs and the private sector.

FemTech: bridging the gender gap in healthcare - Trend spotlight

Governments will not be able to shoulder the financial burden of adopting new resilient practices without additional support, however. Investors must be attracted, and this is where the insurance industry can play a key role. Insurers pay out in the event of a lost harvest, for example, and thus assure lenders that their clients will remain solvent even if disaster strikes. This makes it easier for investors to finance the sector.

A resilient farming sector will help to diversify economies and make them more resilient against external shocks. It will also provide employment for many. This is especially important in countries with growing populations.

Insurers, governments, NGOs, international organisations and other players in the sector have the risk management expertise to educate farmers on how to manage their operations in the future. We can all grow in this together – agriculture, insurance, finance and suppliers – making society as a whole more resilient not only with regard to food security but also in economic terms.

Call us to discuss how we can collaborate to make the key economic pillar of farming in the Caribbean and Central America resilient for generations to come.

SONAR fosters better understanding of new or changing risks, their interactions and dependencies. The aim is to stimulate engagement among all relevant stakeholders, including re/insurers, to help best prepare society for tomorrow’s risks.
Robin Lougee,Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Swiss Re Institute

Preparing for a growing number of floods and droughts is clearly a first priority. Planting the right crops and managing them with new digital tools for precision farming are further essential measures for farmers to implement.

To establish climate-resilient operations, farmers in Central America and the Caribbean need access to new tools, seeds and other input materials. And this requires support from governments, multilateral donor organisations, NGOs and the private sector.

Governments will not be able to shoulder the financial burden of adopting new resilient practices without additional support, however. Investors must be attracted, and this is where the insurance industry can play a key role. Insurers pay out in the event of a lost harvest, for example, and thus assure lenders that their clients will remain solvent even if disaster strikes. This makes it easier for investors to finance the sector.

What does this imply for agriculture in the region, particularly considering that growing this industry will be key to food security, employment and diversification of the economies in the region
Author Name,Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Swiss Re Institute

2.4 bil Years of experience in risk management

Data as of August 2024

Preparing for a growing number of floods and droughts is clearly a first priority. Planting the right crops and managing them with new digital tools for precision farming are further essential measures for farmers to implement.

To establish climate-resilient operations, farmers in Central America and the Caribbean need access to new tools, seeds and other input materials. And this requires support from governments, multilateral donor organisations, NGOs and the private sector.

What does this imply for agriculture in the region, particularly considering that growing this industry will be key to food security, employment and diversification of the economies in the region
Author Name,Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Swiss Re Institute
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    Demographic and social environment
  2. 02
    Political and economic environment
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